Preseason Magazine Roundup Part 3

OU in Preseason Magazines

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3

How Accurate Are They?

Phil Steele's predictions rank No. 1 over the last 10 years but have dropped to No. 2 over the last three years.

Athlon's prediction accuracy is the best of all preseason magazines over the last three years and No. 2 over the last five years.

The Sporting News merged with Street & Smith's in 2008. Both publications have been ranked in the middle of all publications over the last five years.

Lindy's has historically ranked between Nos. 8 and 10 out of 15 publications in terms of accuracy rating but finished dead last in 2008.

The above information was taken from http://preseason.stassen.com/, which ranks the accuracy of all 15 publications which release preseason rankings.

NORMAN, Okla. -- Ask just about any coach around the country and you will find out they do not put much stock in preseason predictions. When ranked high, they will tell you that none of it matters unless you prove it on the field. When rated low, it is typically the "us against the world" mentality.

Both approaches are justified. After all, how often does the team ranked No. 1 at the beginning of the season actually finish there? Conversely, how many times do you see a team fly in under the radar and steadily climb the polls throughout the year? See Exhibit A in 2000 when Oklahoma barely cracked the preseason top 25, only to run the table en route to the national title.

For the sake of analysis, however, we take a retrospective look at how accurate the publications have been in the past and what that could mean for 2009.

The following table compares the magazines' preseason rankings over the last 10 seasons to where the Sooners actually finished in the AP poll.

OU's Historical Preseason Magazine Rankings

Year

Athlon

Lindy's

TSN

Steele

Pre-Avg.

Final AP

Diff.

2009

2008

3.5

-1.5

2007

2006

4.5

-6.5

2005

6.5

-15.5

2004

-1

2003

-1

2002

-2

2001

-1

2000

+18

Avg.

-1

The Verdict
While it is rare that the magazines are right on with their predictions, overall they have been quite accurate when comparing the preseason average to the final AP poll.

At first glance, one may think the numbers are skewed by the large discrepancies in 2000 and 2005 (one in the Sooners favor and the other not). Regardless of whether or not these years are included, however, the year-to-year average is still within one or two spots.

Notes of Interest
In 2007, the year in which there was the most deviation in preseason predictions (10 spots), the overall average actually equaled OU's final AP ranking. It was the only year which that happened.

Only three times have any of the magazines gotten Oklahoma's final ranking exactly right: Phil Steele's (in 2002) and The Sporting News (in 2003 and '04).

Athlon and Lindy's generally hold the highest standard for the Sooners among the four publications.

The Sporting News is historically the most accurate at predicting OU's final ranking, with its overall preseason average equaling Oklahoma's average AP finish.

The Final Word
With the lofty expectations OU is faced with year-in and year-out, the Sooners consistently live up to the billing. That said, you can expect Oklahoma to be in the middle of the national championship discussion again as 2009 comes to a close.

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This is the final installment of a three-part series breaking down what the preseason magazines are saying about the Sooners. View Part 1 and Part 2 for a complete overview.

Stay tuned to SoonerSports.com throughout the summer for more in-depth features previewing the 2009 football season.

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